This is my last post for The Verge and Recode, and also the last article I intend to make. Since 1991, I have been writing articles for technology weekly, starting with the Wall Street Journal. During that time I was really fortunate to know the top names of the technological revolution, to ponder and appreciate their achievements.
Now that I am ready for retirement after a long journey of observing the ups and downs of the tech world, I think this is a good time to look back at the industry sweep over that period, and anticipate. about what will happen in the future.
I will begin by quoting the first line in the first issue of Personal Technology in the Journal on October 17, 1991: "Personal computers are so hard Use it, and that's not your fault. "
This is true for many years to come. The interface was hard to use, but most of the technology products needed a certain level of technical skill to fix and adjust - which most ordinary users do not have (or do not) have). The technology industry was completely new at the time, and engineers did not invent products for ordinary people who had other talents and interests outside of technology.But over time, technology products have become more reliable and easy to use; And meanwhile, the users are also more delicate. Now you can give an iPad to a 6-year-old kid, giving him some basics - and that kid can learn how to use that device quickly. That's great, especially when the iPad is more powerful than any of the older personal computers I've used in the 90s of the last century. Another plus point: hardware and software are rarely at the present time catastrophic, like the PC in the early days.So now I can conclude: "Personal technology equipment is relatively easy to use, but if it's hard to use then it's not your fault."
The devices we rely on every day like a PC and a phone are nothing new. They are improved and improved to become better each year. The real breakthroughs do not do this: they are only for "technology" people. Many people still can not feel familiar with a complex virtual reality system, or simply are not used to wearing headphones. And most of us now do not believe that Siri, Alexa or Google Assistant can provide accurate answers.
But this is only the dawn of these new technologies. The question is: where are we in this long day of technology, and what will happen next?
Words of sleep?
As I'm writing these lines, personal service technologies are still full of promise - but some of the blockbusters that make up the turnaround have begun to reach out and become outdated. as all are beginning to be lulled.
Having dominated the world 10 years ago at the launch, Apple's first multi-touch iPhone since then has barely improved significantly. In fact, it has become a new kind of personal computer, but it has grown to maturity and I'm skeptical that there will be no significant improvement in the future. Tablet PCs have grown as stormy but still struggling to find a place in the lives of people. Whereas desktop computers and laptops have become a familiar part of everyday life.
But as we continue to evolve, the major software revolutions that make up cloud computing, search engines, or social networking are beginning to phase out.
Meanwhile, new inventions such as drone and robots are still in their infancy, and enter the niche market with few practical applications.
The biggest hardware and software breakthrough since the iPad in 2010 has been Amazon's Echo Voice Controller, with Alexa software. Echo will be launched in 2015, before a similar device named Google Home came out last year. I was expecting something else.Echo and Alexa are just the beginning. Amazon CEO Jeff Bezos told me in an interview last year that artificial intelligence was not the first game that was even just the first player to appear on the field. While Amazon has not disclosed the actual sales figures for the Echo product line, third parties have estimated that they sold less than 10 million units last year despite relatively fast growth. For comparison, even in the "normal" phase of the last quarter, Apple has sold 50 million iPhones. The popular Android is even larger sales.
